Now Quantum States are Magical, July 2025
GM frens, this is the Quantum Doom Clock with Colton Dillion and Rick Carback, the founders of Quip Network, onramping the world to quantum computing subnets protected by post-quantum cryptography on every chain.
Quantum progress continues apace. From unconditional exponential speedups to 1,000x error reductions, the quantum computing industry is no longer crawling—it’s sprinting toward cryptographic relevance with regular, sustained advances that is bringing quantum dominance from "soon" to "imminent."
The highlight of this month is the logical-level magic state distillation by researchers working with Quantinuum. A magic state is a quantum state that can be reliably used for fully general quantum computation, and this report may achieve the first universal, fully fault-tolerant quantum gate set with repeatable error correction. They prepared "magic" states with an error rate of just seven mistakes per 100,000 operations, and simulations suggest they could reach just six errors per 10 billion operations on larger systems. Really promising if true, hopefully it is not just magic!
More Quantum Advantage Claims
Hot on the heels of D-Wave’s results, USC researchers have demonstrated an unconditional exponential quantum scaling advantage using two 127-qubit IBM Quantum Eagle processors. Published in Physical Review X. Like D-Wave’s results, it lacks the caveats we usually see with these claims.
The team tackled a variant of Simon’s problem with restricted Hamming weight, demonstrating genuine exponential speedup for circuits up to 58 qubits. As Daniel Lidar from the research team notes, "There have previously been demonstrations of more modest types of speedups like a polynomial speedup. But an exponential speedup is the most dramatic type of speed up that we expect to see from quantum computers."
This USC announcement is not alone. IonQ and Kipu Quantum solved the most complex protein folding problem ever on quantum hardware with 12 amino acids in the problem set. IonQ simulated neutrinoless double-beta decay using 32 qubits, unlocking new physics previously beyond classical reach. Finally, for those who need more existential dread in their life, researchers used a 5,564-qubit D-Wave system to model false vacuum decay that is literally simulating the death of our universe.
Error Correction Goes Parabolic
Microsoft dropped a bombshell with their 4D geometric codes that slash quantum errors by 1,000x. These codes reduce error rates so much that they require 5-6x fewer physical qubits per logical qubit. Microsoft’s Krysta Svore promises "50 logical qubits in the near term, with the potential to scale to thousands."
Meanwhile, QuEra, Harvard and MIT demonstrated logical-level state distillation on neutral atoms, keeping the entire process within the error-corrected layer. Oxford physicists set yet another record with a quantum logic operation error rate of just 0.000015%. Oxford’s new record is only one error in 6.7 million operations, nearly 10x better than their previous record.
Better Quantum through Silicon?
While superconducting and ion trap systems grab headlines, silicon-based quantum computers are quietly revolutionizing the field with their promise of manufacturing scalability and room-temperature operation. Xanadu’s breakthrough creating GKP (Gottesman–Kitaev–Preskill) states directly on a silicon chip marks the first time error-resistant quantum states have been generated using conventional chip manufacturing. As researchers noted, this suggests "error-correcting quantum states could be produced with the same tools used to manufacture conventional computer chips."
Dynamically corrected gates in silicon singlet-triplet qubits reduced infidelities by 3x, achieving gate fidelities above 0.99. Spin-qubit control with milli-kelvin CMOS demonstrated that cryo-CMOS can efficiently perform universal logic operations with about 100,000 transistors, opening prospects for scalable "chiplet-style" control architectures.
Even more promising, researchers executed four-qubit variational algorithms in silicon photonics with integrated entangled photon sources at room temperature. This convergence of silicon manufacturing expertise with quantum computing could accelerate deployment timelines dramatically.
A Number of New System and Funding Announcements
Several new systems were announced with varying levels of qubits this month:
- China’s ez-Q Engine 2.0 supports over 1,000 qubits, positioning China just behind IBM and Atom Computing
- Rigetti’s 36-qubit system achieved 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity—a 2x error reduction from their previous 84-qubit system
- IQM Emerald launched on AWS Braket with 54 qubits
- Russia unveiled a 50-qubit cold ion quantum computer
- SpinQ expects to deliver a 100-qubit system by year’s end
It is important to note that many of these are not simply the lab demonstrations we are used to seeing. Nord Quantique claims their compact physical qubit with built-in error correction could scale to 1,000 qubits by 2031 while consuming 2,000x less power than supercomputers. QuiX Quantum secured €15 million after becoming the first to sell 64-qubit photonic systems commercially, and QEDMA raised $26 million for quantum noise resilience.
As for lab results, this month had a few:
- HOLO’s quantum breakthrough claims to boost multi-qubit efficiency by 50% while cutting classical communication by 40%
- Chalmers engineers built a pulse-driven qubit amplifier that’s 10x more efficient
- NPL’s quantum circuit imaging can locate individual defects in functioning quantum circuits
- Aalto University achieved 1 millisecond coherence time for transmon qubits, crushing the previous 0.6ms record
Even the DIY community is getting involved, with hackers building NMR quantum devices on the cheap.
Crypto Pioneers Take Notice
While some in the crypto space remain dismissive of the quantum threat, some of the industry’s foundational figures are making strategic moves. David Chaum, a renowned pioneer in cryptography and privacy technology, is providing his expertise to a new strategic crypto push led by tech figure Fred Krueger.
This development is notable given Krueger’s past skepticism about cryptocurrency valuations and scrutiny of major players’ approaches. Chaum’s involvement suggests that the original architects of digital privacy are not ignoring the shifting technological landscape. When a titan of cryptography makes a new strategic move, it’s a signal that the game is changing.
Each breakthrough compounds the others. Better coherence enables better error correction. Better error correction enables larger circuits. Larger circuits enable real applications. It’s a virtuous cycle spinning faster every month.
Frequently Asked Questions
Have a question? Just e-mail us at team at quantumdoomclock dot com. Below are the top questions we have received since our last update.
Q: With all these error correction breakthroughs, how close are we really to breaking encryption?
A: We are not updating the clock yet as a lot of this news is still in the lab, but note that this kind of progress is expected for the doom clock estimates to be accurate. The evidence now is crystal clear that we are likely looking at cryptographically relevant machines before 2030. Our doom clock may need another adjustment soon.
Q: Should I be worried about the universe ending in a false vacuum decay?
A: The D-Wave simulation of false vacuum decay is fascinating physics, but don’t lose sleep over it. Be more worried about Bitcoin keys, and be even more excited about the advances that will come from this technology. The same quantum computers modeling cosmic catastrophes will be unlocking the secrets of materials science, drug discovery, and countless other fields much sooner than the end of the universe.
The Quantum Doom Clock is brought to you by Richard Carback and Colton Dillion, the cofounders of Quip Network
The Quantum Doom Clock is a monthly mailing list that summarizes news for Quantum Computing and its effects on the cryptography and cryptocurrency spaces. We do not sell your e-mail.
